Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 0.293077 0.343404 0.398237 0.462217 0.534615 0.613786 0.706697
2025-04-27 0.210338 0.272245 0.345240 0.436940 0.548275 0.678249 0.840576
2025-05-04 0.157238 0.224411 0.309897 0.424998 0.574041 0.758484 1.001689
2025-05-11 0.117326 0.185231 0.278610 0.413254 0.598760 0.841281 1.177494
2025-05-18 0.081582 0.143947 0.237195 0.381694 0.593845 0.886882 1.313626
2025-05-25 0.055030 0.109603 0.198825 0.347797 0.581010 0.921104 1.440553
2025-06-01 0.039486 0.088821 0.176873 0.334738 0.597060 0.998966 1.639532
2025-06-08 0.027909 0.071480 0.156688 0.320862 0.610211 1.075206 1.846972
2025-06-15 0.021401 0.062022 0.148500 0.326321 0.656438 1.209350 2.159313
2025-06-22 0.014342 0.048337 0.128400 0.305882 0.655270 1.267894 2.360936
2025-06-29 0.009852 0.038767 0.114069 0.293564 0.666989 1.350098 2.611556
2025-07-06 0.006599 0.030727 0.100570 0.279854 0.673950 1.425393 2.859891
2025-07-13 0.004727 0.026002 0.094153 0.281561 0.714646 1.571593 3.256119
2025-07-20 0.003213 0.021321 0.086064 0.277488 0.743247 1.700106 3.637026
2025-07-27 0.002265 0.018117 0.081073 0.280178 0.787859 1.866485 4.107319
2025-08-03 0.001559 0.015254 0.075906 0.281207 0.829487 2.033134 4.597057
2025-08-10 0.000915 0.011647 0.066074 0.265999 0.829839 2.115533 4.933963
2025-08-17 0.000493 0.008568 0.056179 0.247121 0.817279 2.169221 5.220732
2025-08-24 0.000296 0.006881 0.051166 0.242454 0.841231 2.306896 5.693741
2025-08-31 0.000168 0.005438 0.046188 0.236163 0.859758 2.435132 6.160592
2025-09-07 0.000113 0.004790 0.045095 0.244147 0.920967 2.670822 6.878977
2025-09-14 0.000054 0.003569 0.039270 0.231217 0.917978 2.753169 7.272737
2025-09-21 0.000026 0.002762 0.035239 0.224038 0.931202 2.877126 7.770626